On January 9, Chongqing Mayor Huang Qifan stated in the government work report that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, Chongqing will strengthen fiscal and taxation regulation and levy a real estate tax on high-end commercial housing. It is reported that the real estate tax rate levied on high-end housing in Chongqing may be around 1%, and the pilot program may be launched in the first quarter. Although analysts believe that the Chongqing pilot is to spread the accumulated experience of real estate tax in the country in the future and improve the real estate tax system. But at the beginning of the new year, this move was made, and there was still a big wave in the property market, and various speculations followed one after another.
To
　　 Many details of Chongqing's real estate tax are not yet clear, but it reveals one of the most important signals: the Ministry of Finance has agreed in principle. Under the "excavation" of the media, the Shanghai version of the real estate tax is gradually showing its outline --- "levied only on new houses", "exempt area per capita from 60 to 70 square meters", and "tax rate 0.5% to 0.6%". The above three points are currently the most authoritative news about Shanghai's property tax.
To
　　 As is the practice in previous years, the annual policy regulation is after the "two sessions" across the country. At the beginning of 2011, it was rumored that the property tax for many years began to find a landing in Shanghai and Chongqing, making this year's property market policy regulation come earlier than previous years.
To
　　 The Shanghai-Chongqing version of the real estate tax that will be implemented has significantly lowered the threshold compared with the previously circulated version. Regarding the "prototype" of the current real estate tax, most professionals say that the real estate tax is difficult to shake house prices. Li Qingwen, director of DTZ Central and West China Planning and Development Consulting Department, even judged that if the property tax is only for newly purchased units, it will not have an impact on the current Guangzhou real estate market. Li Qingwen believes that the objects of property tax levy in major cities should be "small and then large", that is to say, start with a small group of people, instead of levying property tax in full at the beginning. Luxury homes or villas began to levy property taxes, and then slowly expanded to the entire market.
To
　　 He believes that real estate tax is not a "flood monster". The current collection method will not affect real estate investment at all. Even under the "stimulus" of Chongqing and Shanghai real estate tax, Guangzhou and other first-tier cities will have a frenzy of rising. Investors will enter the market to "hoard houses" and catch up on the "last train" before the real estate tax is levied.
To
Savills South China Chairman Lin Muxiong also said in an interview that real estate tax has been levied in Western countries for many years. If real estate tax is levied in China, the type of property will be levied from commercial real estate and then transition to All real estate. The scope of expropriation will also begin in some first-tier cities and then transition to the whole country. In the long run, the collection of property tax will help regulate and guide the healthy development of real estate, and at the same time, the cost of property ownership will increase.
To
　　Text/Picture Guan Li, reporter from Nanfang Daily
To
　　Thematic planning Guan Li
To
　　The pilot property tax has limited impact
To
　　 The Chongqing version of real estate tax has set off waves. According to CCTV reports, Chongqing Mayor Huang Qifan revealed that real estate tax is not only levied on high-end houses, but also on stock houses. Since last year, news that Shanghai, Chongqing, and Shenzhen will conduct real estate tax pilot projects have continuously attracted public attention. Wang Juelin, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that it is not the introduction of a real estate tax that can solve the problem of the real estate market. Zhou Jiancheng of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute believes that the main function of real estate tax is to increase local fiscal revenue. In terms of restraining housing prices, the role of real estate tax will not be long-term. He judged that, judging from the various detailed rules rumored in the market for the Shanghai version of real estate tax, local fiscal revenues such as the introduction of a one-year increase of 1 billion to 2 billion yuan. In the medium and long term, the effect of property tax will be quickly digested by the market. After a period of time after the introduction of property tax, the property market will return to normal.
To
　　 Yin Bocheng, director of the Real Estate Research Center of Fudan University, pointed out that the introduction of real estate tax is first to curb investment needs and balance housing price growth; second, to open up a stable source of taxation for local governments; third, to curb the trend of further widening the gap between the rich and the poor. Yin Bocheng believes that insisting on real estate regulation is the root of restraining the excessive growth of housing prices. Once the regulation policy is loosened, housing prices may rebound in a retaliatory manner.
To
　　 On the other hand, Chongqing and Shanghai are the only two cities that are actively piloting real estate tax, and the influence of related policies has not been extended to other first-tier cities. According to expert analysis, for these first-tier cities, the pressure of rising housing prices is greater, the pressure on the construction of affordable housing is also great, and the development space for land transfer is becoming less and less, and there is an urgent need to develop new fiscal revenue. In most second- and third-tier cities, housing price pressure is not very prominent, and local fiscal revenues can still rely to a large extent on land transfers. There is no need for these cities to try real estate taxes for the time being.
To
　　 Nanfang Daily reporter Li Guangjun
To
　　Developer's response to "zero interest rate installment"
To
　　 Property tax is coming! It was unexpected and so sudden. Although the industry had anticipated the levy of real estate tax early last year, the news that Chongqing officially proposed the levy last week and is expected to issue an official document in the first quarter still caused an uproar in the real estate industry. In terms of current results, Chongqing has become the first "crab-eating" city, and its deterrence to the domestic luxury housing market has already emerged. It is reported that Shanghai, which is also a pilot city, has experienced developers. Many high-end real estates have begun to use installment payments and delayed opening to resist the attack of real estate tax. Some real estates have also played the banner of "zero interest rate installment". . However, there are still major controversies in the industry regarding the formal surface of this policy. The most intense one is the actual "utility" of the property tax.
To
　　 Property tax VS interest rate hike
To
　　 To suppress "inflation"?
To
　　 It can be seen from the trajectory of the state's policy formulation on real estate in 2010 that the direction of macroeconomic control has shifted from a purely "strike hard" to a counterpart in the control of "inflation." At the beginning of 2011, the real estate tax has officially landed. Is this "effective integration" or "the opposite of" the purpose of controlling "inflation"?
To
　　 Chen Zhiwu, a professor of finance at the Yale University School of Management, told the media in a public occasion that his attitude towards Chongqing's decision to impose a property tax on high-end commercial housing is "not advocating." The reason is that “domestic taxation is already heavy, and China has no mechanism to force relevant departments to take the initiative to implement tax reduction policies.” He believes that the biggest reality in the current domestic economic market is that there are too many currencies in circulation, but there are many types of investment. Too little. The introduction of real estate tax "is expected to temporarily alleviate the pressure of rising housing prices in the short term." But on the other hand, the effect of restraining inflation is not obvious. As a combination of controlling inflation and suppressing housing prices, relative to tax policies, interest rate hikes and interest rate monetary policy measures are still more effective.
To
In addition, more experts pointed out that the current increase in housing prices is not only demand, but more importantly, the currency in circulation in the market. At present, the scope of investment is small and the security of real estate is relatively high. It is difficult to suppress market investment and speculation by only relying on taxation. "Investors who can afford high-priced properties will buy them even if they levy an extra 1% to 2% tax. The final result will be passed on to ordinary home buyers, and the housing prices will still be pushed up, which may push up prices again in disguise. , Is not good for resisting inflation." Tax law expert Hu Yijian also believes that under the situation of limited market-oriented land supply and the currency flooding has not been solved, the use of taxation to solve the housing price problem is very limited.
To
　　 Property tax VS land speculation king
To
　　 Can the land price be suppressed?
To
　　 "The most important thing about the levy of real estate tax is not to immediately lower the market price, but to target the local government's ‘land finance’ policy." Xiao Wenxiao, senior research director of Mantanghong, analyzed. According to data released by the 2011 National Land and Resources Working Conference held on January 7 this year, the national land transfer fee reached 2.7 trillion in 2010, an increase of more than 70% year-on-year, accounting for 27% of the annual 10 trillion fiscal revenue. "The levy of real estate tax will improve the source of capital income for local governments and help control the land transfer price."
To
Although the current local government debt is still not transparent, according to the 11th National People’s Congress Standing Committee on June 23 last year, the National Audit Office released the survey of 18 provinces, 16 cities, and 36 counties. There are 307 local financing platform companies at all levels, with a total government debt balance of 14,500 yuan, while the total debt of local governments is nearly 2.8 trillion yuan. According to industry insiders, in the past, such huge debts were basically paid for by the transfer of land auctions. And the current implementation of Chongqing's real estate tax, some commentators believe that it may change the current local government's enthusiasm for speculating on land prices. "The collection of real estate tax is equivalent to expanding government revenue channels. To a certain extent, it will lower the transaction price of land, reduce developer costs in disguise, and house prices will become more stable." General Manager of Beijing Capital Group and Chairman of Beijing Capital Land Liu Xiaoguang said, “Real estate tax should be levied universally. According to the calculation of Renmin University, the real estate tax can be collected about 700 billion yuan a year. If this 700 billion can be received, it will gradually replace land finance.”
To
　　 However, there are still different voices in the industry regarding the impact of real estate tax levy on local finances. Financial commentator Ye Tan said in an interview with the media that she “supported” the introduction of a real estate tax, but at the same time she reminded that real estate tax cannot solve local finances. “First levy high-end residential properties, and collect taxes of billions of up to tens of billions of dollars. If you want to say that it is impossible to finally solve the problem of land fiscal revenue.” Ye Tan analyzed that the most important thing for levying a real estate tax is not to change the result. It is to change many of the issues in the middle, "the most important thing is the future inflation expectations and the changes in the intermediate system."
To
　　 Property tax VS property price
To
　　 The market replaces the administration?
To
　　 "Real estate tax as a tax adjustment is reasonable. If it is used as a weapon to suppress housing prices, not only the purpose is wrong, but the method is also wrong. In the short term, it may be realized when everyone does not have a clear expectation." Ren Zhiqiang once said. In fact, the survey results of some websites on the collection of real estate tax show that over 50% of netizens said that "housing prices will rise", and 21.7% of netizens said that "housing prices will fall". This reflects, to a certain extent, that home buyers still appear "lack of confidence" as to how property taxes can depress property prices.
To
　　 How much impact can the introduction of real estate tax have on market prices? This is not only the most concerned issue of home buyers, but also the focus of discussion among industry experts. "Don't expect too much that the levy of real estate tax can lower property prices." Xiao Wenxiao, senior research director of Mantanghong Real Estate, said in an interview with our reporter. He believes that in the short term, the implementation of the policy will definitely have a certain impact on the market. But "the introduction of tax policies will not have much impact on property prices."
To
　　 According to Xiao Wenxiao's analysis, the current market reaction is only because of the high expectations of property tax, but this psychological impact will soon be digested. "The tax rate of 1%-2% is not a big deal compared to last year's house price increase, and has little effect on speculators in the market." The current main factor pushing up property prices is still the short-term speculation of speculators. "Even if taxes are imposed, the price difference of this kind of investment can still be passed on to buyers through the market. If the supply-demand relationship remains unchanged and the supply is not increased, property prices will not be significantly reduced due to property taxes."
To
　　 Regarding the influence of real estate tax, Li Wenjiang, chief analyst of Hefuhuihui, said in an interview with our reporter that for the market, it is more a signal of policy change. "As a market behavior, real estate tax is more reasonable than an administrative order such as a purchase restriction order." Although the introduction of tax policies is difficult to quickly and effectively suppress property prices, the purely administrative suppression policy such as purchase restriction orders has been shifted to the introduction of taxation to carry out the market. Self-regulation is more feasible for rationally regulating the property market. According to Li Wenjiang’s analysis, the scope of the purchase restriction order is too wide, and the real buyers who have real housing needs are also under control. “The introduction of real estate tax only hits high-end consumer groups, which is not only small and reasonable, but also suppressed. Some speculators. Good for the healthy operation of the market."