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The deposit reserve ratio is raised by 0.5%, saying that interest rate hike expectations have not weakened

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The deposit reserve ratio is raised by 0.5%, saying that interest rate hike expectations have not weakened

  • Categories:Company News
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  • Time of issue:2021-12-01 09:21
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(Summary description)The Central Bank announced yesterday that starting from January 20, 2011, it will raise the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5%. This is the first increase this year since the 6th increase last year and the fourth in three months. Increased times. After this increase, the deposit reserve ratio of my country's large financial institutions will reach a historical high of 19%, and the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium financial institutions will also reach 15.5%.

The deposit reserve ratio is raised by 0.5%, saying that interest rate hike expectations have not weakened

(Summary description)The Central Bank announced yesterday that starting from January 20, 2011, it will raise the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5%. This is the first increase this year since the 6th increase last year and the fourth in three months. Increased times. After this increase, the deposit reserve ratio of my country's large financial institutions will reach a historical high of 19%, and the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium financial institutions will also reach 15.5%.

  • Categories:Company News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2021-12-01 09:21
  • Views:
Information

The Central Bank announced yesterday that starting from January 20, 2011, it will raise the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5%. This is the first increase this year since the 6th increase last year and the fourth in three months. Increased times. After this increase, the deposit reserve ratio of my country's large financial institutions will reach a historical high of 19%, and the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium financial institutions will also reach 15.5%.

  ■Explore the cause

   aims to recover liquidity and curb inflation

   Xia Bin, Counselor of the State Council and member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank, said that the current excess liquidity is due to excessive foreign exchange reserves. The purpose of raising the reserve ratio is to recover liquidity, but it does not mean that the central bank has to tighten money.

   Xia Bin also said that he did not choose to raise interest rates because the impact of interest rate hikes on the recovery of liquidity requires a series of policy transmission mechanisms, which have a delay effect in time, and the effect is not as direct and obvious as raising the deposit reserve ratio.

   Bank of Communications (5.650, -0.08, -1.40%) chief economist Lian Ping believes that this will have a positive effect on inflation. At the same time, he predicted that the domestic inflationary pressure will not be low throughout the first quarter of this year.

   mainly for the market with more hot money

   Li Daokui, a member of the Monetary Committee of the Central Bank, said that the increase in the deposit reserve ratio is not surprising and reflects the effectiveness and pertinence of monetary policy. He said that adjusting the reserve ratio is a parallel measure to deal with the appreciation of the renminbi.

   Li Daokui explained that the targeting is mainly for "hot money." At present, there is a lot of hot money in the market, and foreign exchange settlement is relatively high. The central bank can recover some of its liquidity by increasing the reserve ratio. The effectiveness is reflected in that the adjustment of the reserve ratio is adjusted simultaneously with the exchange rate. Li Daokui said that because the current appreciation of the renminbi is large, raising the reserve ratio can effectively recover liquidity and recover the excess money in the market.

   The first week of credit surge is the fuse

   Bohai Securities macro analyst Du Zhengzheng said that in the first week of this year, the credit investment approaching 500 billion was the main and direct reason for this increase in the deposit reserve ratio. In addition, the increased pressure on liquidity recovery and inflation control in 2011 also caused the central bank to make a difference at the beginning of the year. The resumption of the 14-day repurchase operation after a lapse of 3 years is a precursor. In 2011, the maturity of bills was relatively large, and the central bills were not very attractive to financial institutions due to the inversion of interest rates in the primary and secondary markets. As a result, the effect of open market operations in recovering liquidity was not good. Therefore, raising the deposit reserve ratio has become a more commonly used tool to recover liquidity.

  ■ Outlook

   does not rule out interest rate hikes around the Spring Festival

Guo Tianyong, director of the Bank of China (3.690, -0.04, -1.07%) Industry Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the central bank once again increased the deposit reserve ratio in order to manage liquidity flexibly, while avoiding the increase in inflation expectations that are likely to occur before the holiday. condition. The possibility of the central bank raising interest rates around the Spring Festival is not ruled out.

   Lianping also said that there is a high possibility of raising interest rates one or two times in the first quarter of the first half of this year, and it is possible to raise interest rates before and after the Spring Festival. This is to promote the improvement of negative interest rates and reduce the extent of negative interest rates. Interest rate hikes are very important for curbing the development of inflation and further exerting the role of monetary policy.

   Interest rate hike expectations have not weakened due to this

   Huang Xiangbin also believes that interest rate hike expectations still exist, and interest rate hike expectations have not been weakened by this adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio. He expected the central bank to raise interest rates again around the Lunar New Year.

   Zhou Mingjian, deputy director of the Guosheng Securities Research Institute, believes that there is not much room for raising the deposit reserve ratio, and there may be one or two follow-ups. It is expected that interest rates will be raised 2-3 times this year.

  ■Influence

  Suck away 350 billion commercial banks

Du Zhengzheng said that this increase will suck up 350 billion yuan of funds from commercial banks. Considering that large commercial banks have over-reserve (the over-reserve rate represents the abundance of idle funds in banks) is basically zero, small and medium-sized joint-stock commercial banks still have a small amount of over-reserve. The real influence of the former is gradually increasing.

   has limited impact on the stock market

   Guotai Junan chief economist Li Xunlei said that the increase in the deposit reserve ratio is expected and will have limited impact on bank real estate stocks. He is optimistic about the long-term trend of the A-share market.

   Speaking of increasing the pressure on bank stocks to raise the deposit reserve ratio, Li Xunlei said that there is no need to panic the market too much. In addition to financing in the secondary market, banks are likely to issue private placements to major shareholders. The valuation of bank shares has been at a historically low level, which is also attractive to major shareholders. The short-term impact on real estate stocks is limited, because this year's real estate stocks have good profitability and low valuations, which do not have the conditions to fall. In addition, he said that he is optimistic about the long-term trend of the A-share market in the long term.

   Cinda Securities chief strategist Huang Xiangbin believes that the increase in the deposit reserve ratio to recover and shrink liquidity, but yesterday’s decline in the market shows that it is within market expectations, and the stock market will continue to fluctuate around the semi-annual line next week.

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