The central bank announced yesterday that from January 20, 2011, the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions will be raised by 0.5 percentage points. This is the first increase this year since the six upward adjustments last year, and the fourth time in three months. The second increase. After the increase, the deposit reserve ratio of China's large financial institutions will reach a historical high of 19%, and the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions will also be as high as 15.5%.
Intended to recover liquidity and inflation
Xia Bin, a member of the State Council’s counselor and central bank’s monetary policy committee, said that the current excess of liquidity is due to excessive foreign exchange payments. The central bank’s increase in the reserve ratio is intended to recover excessive liquidity in the market to curb inflation. Raising the reserve ratio is to recover liquidity, and does not mean that the central bank will tighten monetary policy.
Xia Bin also said that he did not choose to raise interest rates because the impact of interest rate hikes on recycling liquidity requires a series of policy transmission mechanisms. There is a delay in time, and the effect is not as direct and obvious as the deposit reserve ratio.
Bank of Communications ( 5.650 , -0.08 , -1.40% ) , chief economist Lian Ping believes that inflation will have a positive effect. At the same time, he predicted that the pressure on domestic inflation will not be low throughout the first quarter of this year.
Mainly for the market hot money more
Li Daokui, a member of the central bank's currency committee, said that it is not surprising to raise the deposit reserve ratio, reflecting the effectiveness and pertinence of monetary policy. He said that adjusting the reserve ratio is a parallel measure to deal with the appreciation of the renminbi.
Li Daokui explained that the targetedness is mainly for "hot money." At present, there are more hot money in the market, and the settlement is higher. The central bank can recover part of the liquidity by raising the reserve ratio. The effectiveness is reflected in the adjustment of the reserve ratio is synchronized with the exchange rate. Li Daokui said that because of the current appreciation of the renminbi, the increase in the reserve ratio can effectively recover liquidity and recover the excess money in the market.
The first week of credit surge is the fuse
Du Zhengzheng, a macro analyst at Bohai Securities, said that the credit supply of nearly 500 billion in the first week of this year is the main and direct reason for this increase in the deposit reserve ratio. In addition, the pressure on liquidity recovery and inflation control in 2011 has also made the central bank make a difference at the beginning of the year. The restart of the 14-day repurchase operation is a harbinger after three years of restart. In the whole year of 2011, the amount of notes expired was large, and the central bank's interest rate of the primary and secondary market was not attractive to financial institutions, so the effect of open market operations to recover liquidity was not good. Therefore, raising the deposit reserve ratio has become a more common tool for recycling liquidity.
Do not rule out the interest rate increase before and after the Spring Festival
Guo Tianyong, director of the China Bank of China University of Finance and Economics ( 3.690 , -0.04 , -1.07% ) , said that the central bank once again raised the deposit reserve ratio, which is intended to flexibly manage liquidity while avoiding the prevailing inflation expectations. Happening. The possibility of raising interest rates before and after the Spring Festival is not ruled out.
Lian Ping also said that the possibility of raising interest rates once or twice in the first quarter of this year is likely to raise interest rates before and after the Spring Festival. This is to promote the improvement of the negative interest rate and reduce the level of negative interest rates. The interest rate hike is very important to curb the development of inflation and further play the role of monetary policy.
Interest rate hike expectations have not weakened
Huang Xiangbin also believes that the interest rate hike is still expected, and the interest rate hike is not expected to be weakened by the adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio. He expects the central bank to raise interest rates again before and after the Lunar New Year.
Zhou Mingjian, deputy director of the Guosheng Securities Research Institute, believes that there is not much room for raising the deposit reserve ratio. There may be one or two follow-ups. It is expected to raise interest rates 2-3 times this year.
Absorb 350 billion commercial banks
Du Zhengzheng said that this upward adjustment will absorb 300 billion yuan of funds from commercial banks. Considering that large commercial banks are super-storage (the excess reserve rate represents the abundance of banks' idle funds) is basically zero, and small and medium-sized joint-stock commercial banks still have a small amount of super-storage. The substantive impact of the former has gradually increased.
Limited impact on the stock market
Guo Xun Junan chief economist Li Xunlei said that the increase in the deposit reserve ratio is expected, has limited impact on the bank real estate stocks, optimistic about the long-term trend of the A-share market.
When it comes to raising the deposit reserve ratio and increasing the pressure on bank stock financing, Li Xunlei said that there is no need to panic about this market. Because banks are likely to issue additional shares to major shareholders in addition to financing in the secondary market, bank stock valuations are already at historically low levels and attractive to major shareholders. The impact on property stocks is limited in the short term, as property stocks are doing well this year and valuations are low, with no downside conditions. In addition, he said that he is optimistic about the long-term trend of the A-share market.
Huang Xiangbin, chief strategist of Cinda Securities, believes that the increase in deposit reserve ratio is the recovery of contracted liquidity, but yesterday's market decline indicates that it is within the market expectation, and the stock market will continue to fluctuate around the semi-annual line next week.