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The central bank’s first deposit reserve ratio this year is the fourth increase in the past three months.

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  • Time of issue:2019-11-11 09:46
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(Summary description)Largefinancialinstitutionsraisedtheirquotato19%andhitarecordhigh,thefourthincreaseinthelastthreemonths   Inthenewyear,thecentralbankstartedtotighten. Yesterday,thePeople'sBankofChinadecidedtoraisethedepositreserveratioofdeposit-takingfinancialinstitutionsby0.5percentagepointsfromJanuary20,2011,Thisisthefourthtimethecentralbankraisedthedepositreserveratiointhelastthreemonths,anditwasalsothefirstincreaseintheyear.   Lockedfundsmorethan350billionyuan   Thedepositreservereferstothedepositsmadebythefinancialinstitutionstoensurethecustomerswithdrawthedepositsandtheliquidationneeds.Thedepositreserverequiredbythecentralbankaccountsforthedepositreserveratio. Aftertheincrease,thedepositreserveratiooflargefinancialinstitutionshasreached19%,arecordhigh,andsomefinancialinstitutionsthathaveimplementedthedifferentialdepositreserveratiohavetoimplementthe20%standard. Aftertheincreaseinthedepositreserveratioofsmallandmedium-sizedfinancialinstitutions,itwillalsobeashighas15.5%.   The19%depositreserveratiomeansthatbankswillpay19yuantothecentralbankafterabsorbing100yuandeposits,andtheremaining81yuancanbeusedforlending. Byraisingthebank'sdepositreserveratio,thecentralbankreleasedasignaloftightliquidity,whichwashailedasoneofthethreemajoraxesofmacroeconomicregulationandcontrol.   Accordingtopreviousdatafromthecentralbank,thebalanceofChina'srenminbidepositsreached71.82trillionattheendof2010.Basedonthiscalculation,theincreaseinthedepositreserveratiocanroughlyoffsetthecommercialbank'sfundsbymorethan350billionyuan.   Analysisoftheintentiontotightenliquidity   Analystsbelievethatthecurrenttwochannelsofliquidity–creditsupplyandforeignexchangeholdings–areshowingrapidgrowth. Thecentralbank’smoveisintendedtotightenliquidity. Affectedbytheinterestsof“earlyearlybenefits”andmonetarypolicytighteningexpectations,creditblowoutsreappearedatthebeginningoftheyear. Accordingtomediareports,thecreditsupplyoffinancialinstitutionsinthefirstweekofthenewyearhasapproached500billionyuan. Intermsofforeignexchangeholdings,foreignexchangeholdingshavemaintainedahighgrowthtrendsincethesecondhalfoflastyear. Foreignexchangeholdingsincreasedby403.3billionyuaninDecember.   ZhaoQingming,aseniorresearcherattheChinaConstructionBank(7.370,-0.12,-1.60%),saidthatthemostdirectimpactofraisingthedepositreserveratioistocontrolthebank'sabilitytolend,makingthebank'sfundstight,affectingthebank'sassetallocation,makingitTheliquidityistight. Forotheraspects,suchasthestockmarket,ithaslittleeffect.   Inordertoeffectivelymanageliquidity,thecentralbankwillreformthecreditmanagementsystemthisyearandwillcalculateandimplementthedifferentialdepositreserveratioofcommercialbanksonamonthlybasis. Recently,ZhouXiaochuan,thegovernorofthecentralbank,saidthatinthenextfewyears,financialreformshouldestablishandimprovethecounter-cyclicalmonetarycreditdynamicregulationmechanism,combinetheadjustmentofmonetarycreditandliquiditymanagementwiththeconstructionofamacro-prudentialpolicyframework,andimplementdifferentialpreparation.Golddynamicadjustmentmeasures,enrichandsupplementpolicytools,andguidethemoderategrowthofmoneyandcredit.   ■Interpretation   1Isthereacaponthedepositreserveratio?   Thereisnoupperlimitintheory.Somepeoplethinkthatitshouldnotexceed25%inoperation.   SinceNovemberlastyear,thecentralbankhasraisedthedepositreserveratiofourtimes,andthedepositreserveratiostandardsimplementedbycommercialbankshaverepeatedlystoodathistoricalhighs. Whatistheincreaseinthereserverequirementratio?   GuoTianyong,aprofessorattheCentralUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,saidthatin1984,whenthePeople’sBankofChinahadjustexercisedthefunctionsofthecentralbank,itsetastatutoryreserveratioaccordingtothenatureofdeposits,40%ofsavingsdeposits,20%ofcorporatedeposits,and25%ofruraldeposits. Thisisbecausethecentralbankcanconcentratemorefundstoadjustthesurplusthroughrefinancing. TheBankofMexicohasalsosetastatutoryreserveratioofmorethan30%. Intheory,thereisnoupperlimittothedepositreserveratio.   However,fromthecurrentrealisticregulatoryindicators,theupwardadjustmentofthedepositreserveratiomaybelimited. BarclaysCapitalsaidthatsincetheCBRC’srequirementforbankloan-to-depositratioisnotmorethan75%,thatis,theloanratiocannotbehigherthan75%,thedepositreserveratioislimitedto25%.Otherwise,themedium-sizedjointventurebankwillnothaveenough.Depositspayforloans,whichinturnrestrictsthehealthydevelopmentofcommercialbanks.   2Isthepossibilityofarecentratehikereduced?   Recyclingliquidityisaconsensus,andexpertshavedifferentopinionsontheimpactofinterestratehikes.   Thedepositreserveratioandinterestratehikearetwomeansofregulatingbyquantityandpricerespectively.Whethertherateofdepositreserveisraisedfrequentlyandthepossibilityofraisinginterestratesintheshorttermisalsoreduced.Expertsinthisindustryhavedifferentopinions.   GuoTianyong,aprofessorattheCentralUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,saidthatthecentralbankonceagainraisedthedepositreserveratio,whichisintendedtoflexiblymanageliquidityandpreventbanksfromre-emergingthesituationofcreditblowoutsatthebeginningoftheyea

The central bank’s first deposit reserve ratio this year is the fourth increase in the past three months.

(Summary description)Largefinancialinstitutionsraisedtheirquotato19%andhitarecordhigh,thefourthincreaseinthelastthreemonths   Inthenewyear,thecentralbankstartedtotighten. Yesterday,thePeople'sBankofChinadecidedtoraisethedepositreserveratioofdeposit-takingfinancialinstitutionsby0.5percentagepointsfromJanuary20,2011,Thisisthefourthtimethecentralbankraisedthedepositreserveratiointhelastthreemonths,anditwasalsothefirstincreaseintheyear.   Lockedfundsmorethan350billionyuan   Thedepositreservereferstothedepositsmadebythefinancialinstitutionstoensurethecustomerswithdrawthedepositsandtheliquidationneeds.Thedepositreserverequiredbythecentralbankaccountsforthedepositreserveratio. Aftertheincrease,thedepositreserveratiooflargefinancialinstitutionshasreached19%,arecordhigh,andsomefinancialinstitutionsthathaveimplementedthedifferentialdepositreserveratiohavetoimplementthe20%standard. Aftertheincreaseinthedepositreserveratioofsmallandmedium-sizedfinancialinstitutions,itwillalsobeashighas15.5%.   The19%depositreserveratiomeansthatbankswillpay19yuantothecentralbankafterabsorbing100yuandeposits,andtheremaining81yuancanbeusedforlending. Byraisingthebank'sdepositreserveratio,thecentralbankreleasedasignaloftightliquidity,whichwashailedasoneofthethreemajoraxesofmacroeconomicregulationandcontrol.   Accordingtopreviousdatafromthecentralbank,thebalanceofChina'srenminbidepositsreached71.82trillionattheendof2010.Basedonthiscalculation,theincreaseinthedepositreserveratiocanroughlyoffsetthecommercialbank'sfundsbymorethan350billionyuan.   Analysisoftheintentiontotightenliquidity   Analystsbelievethatthecurrenttwochannelsofliquidity–creditsupplyandforeignexchangeholdings–areshowingrapidgrowth. Thecentralbank’smoveisintendedtotightenliquidity. Affectedbytheinterestsof“earlyearlybenefits”andmonetarypolicytighteningexpectations,creditblowoutsreappearedatthebeginningoftheyear. Accordingtomediareports,thecreditsupplyoffinancialinstitutionsinthefirstweekofthenewyearhasapproached500billionyuan. Intermsofforeignexchangeholdings,foreignexchangeholdingshavemaintainedahighgrowthtrendsincethesecondhalfoflastyear. Foreignexchangeholdingsincreasedby403.3billionyuaninDecember.   ZhaoQingming,aseniorresearcherattheChinaConstructionBank(7.370,-0.12,-1.60%),saidthatthemostdirectimpactofraisingthedepositreserveratioistocontrolthebank'sabilitytolend,makingthebank'sfundstight,affectingthebank'sassetallocation,makingitTheliquidityistight. Forotheraspects,suchasthestockmarket,ithaslittleeffect.   Inordertoeffectivelymanageliquidity,thecentralbankwillreformthecreditmanagementsystemthisyearandwillcalculateandimplementthedifferentialdepositreserveratioofcommercialbanksonamonthlybasis. Recently,ZhouXiaochuan,thegovernorofthecentralbank,saidthatinthenextfewyears,financialreformshouldestablishandimprovethecounter-cyclicalmonetarycreditdynamicregulationmechanism,combinetheadjustmentofmonetarycreditandliquiditymanagementwiththeconstructionofamacro-prudentialpolicyframework,andimplementdifferentialpreparation.Golddynamicadjustmentmeasures,enrichandsupplementpolicytools,andguidethemoderategrowthofmoneyandcredit.   ■Interpretation   1Isthereacaponthedepositreserveratio?   Thereisnoupperlimitintheory.Somepeoplethinkthatitshouldnotexceed25%inoperation.   SinceNovemberlastyear,thecentralbankhasraisedthedepositreserveratiofourtimes,andthedepositreserveratiostandardsimplementedbycommercialbankshaverepeatedlystoodathistoricalhighs. Whatistheincreaseinthereserverequirementratio?   GuoTianyong,aprofessorattheCentralUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,saidthatin1984,whenthePeople’sBankofChinahadjustexercisedthefunctionsofthecentralbank,itsetastatutoryreserveratioaccordingtothenatureofdeposits,40%ofsavingsdeposits,20%ofcorporatedeposits,and25%ofruraldeposits. Thisisbecausethecentralbankcanconcentratemorefundstoadjustthesurplusthroughrefinancing. TheBankofMexicohasalsosetastatutoryreserveratioofmorethan30%. Intheory,thereisnoupperlimittothedepositreserveratio.   However,fromthecurrentrealisticregulatoryindicators,theupwardadjustmentofthedepositreserveratiomaybelimited. BarclaysCapitalsaidthatsincetheCBRC’srequirementforbankloan-to-depositratioisnotmorethan75%,thatis,theloanratiocannotbehigherthan75%,thedepositreserveratioislimitedto25%.Otherwise,themedium-sizedjointventurebankwillnothaveenough.Depositspayforloans,whichinturnrestrictsthehealthydevelopmentofcommercialbanks.   2Isthepossibilityofarecentratehikereduced?   Recyclingliquidityisaconsensus,andexpertshavedifferentopinionsontheimpactofinterestratehikes.   Thedepositreserveratioandinterestratehikearetwomeansofregulatingbyquantityandpricerespectively.Whethertherateofdepositreserveisraisedfrequentlyandthepossibilityofraisinginterestratesintheshorttermisalsoreduced.Expertsinthisindustryhavedifferentopinions.   GuoTianyong,aprofessorattheCentralUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,saidthatthecentralbankonceagainraisedthedepositreserveratio,whichisintendedtoflexiblymanageliquidityandpreventbanksfromre-emergingthesituationofcreditblowoutsatthebeginningoftheyea

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  • Time of issue:2019-11-11 09:46
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Information
Large financial institutions raised their quota to 19% and hit a record high, the fourth increase in the last three months
 
  In the new year, the central bank started to tighten. Yesterday, the People's Bank of China decided to raise the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from January 20, 2011, This is the fourth time the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio in the last three months, and it was also the first increase in the year.
 
  Locked funds more than 350 billion yuan
 
  The deposit reserve refers to the deposits made by the financial institutions to ensure the customers withdraw the deposits and the liquidation needs. The deposit reserve required by the central bank accounts for the deposit reserve ratio. After the increase, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions has reached 19%, a record high, and some financial institutions that have implemented the differential deposit reserve ratio have to implement the 20% standard. After the increase in the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions, it will also be as high as 15.5%.
 
  The 19% deposit reserve ratio means that banks will pay 19 yuan to the central bank after absorbing 100 yuan deposits, and the remaining 81 yuan can be used for lending. By raising the bank's deposit reserve ratio, the central bank released a signal of tight liquidity, which was hailed as one of the three major axes of macroeconomic regulation and control.
 
  According to previous data from the central bank, the balance of China's renminbi deposits reached 71.82 trillion at the end of 2010. Based on this calculation, the increase in the deposit reserve ratio can roughly offset the commercial bank's funds by more than 350 billion yuan.
 
  Analysis of the intention to tighten liquidity
 
  Analysts believe that the current two channels of liquidity – credit supply and foreign exchange holdings – are showing rapid growth. The central bank’s move is intended to tighten liquidity. Affected by the interests of “early early benefits” and monetary policy tightening expectations, credit blowouts reappeared at the beginning of the year. According to media reports, the credit supply of financial institutions in the first week of the new year has approached 500 billion yuan. In terms of foreign exchange holdings, foreign exchange holdings have maintained a high growth trend since the second half of last year. Foreign exchange holdings increased by 403.3 billion yuan in December.
 
  Zhao Qingming, a senior researcher at the China Construction Bank (7.370, -0.12, -1.60%), said that the most direct impact of raising the deposit reserve ratio is to control the bank's ability to lend, making the bank's funds tight, affecting the bank's asset allocation, making it The liquidity is tight. For other aspects, such as the stock market, it has little effect.
 
  In order to effectively manage liquidity, the central bank will reform the credit management system this year and will calculate and implement the differential deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks on a monthly basis. Recently, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, said that in the next few years, financial reform should establish and improve the counter-cyclical monetary credit dynamic regulation mechanism, combine the adjustment of monetary credit and liquidity management with the construction of a macro-prudential policy framework, and implement differential preparation. Gold dynamic adjustment measures, enrich and supplement policy tools, and guide the moderate growth of money and credit.
 
  ■ Interpretation
 
  1 Is there a cap on the deposit reserve ratio?
 
  There is no upper limit in theory. Some people think that it should not exceed 25% in operation.
 
  Since November last year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio four times, and the deposit reserve ratio standards implemented by commercial banks have repeatedly stood at historical highs. What is the increase in the reserve requirement ratio?
 
  Guo Tianyong, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that in 1984, when the People’s Bank of China had just exercised the functions of the central bank, it set a statutory reserve ratio according to the nature of deposits, 40% of savings deposits, 20% of corporate deposits, and 25% of rural deposits. This is because the central bank can concentrate more funds to adjust the surplus through refinancing. The Bank of Mexico has also set a statutory reserve ratio of more than 30%. In theory, there is no upper limit to the deposit reserve ratio.
 
  However, from the current realistic regulatory indicators, the upward adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio may be limited. Barclays Capital said that since the CBRC’s requirement for bank loan-to-deposit ratio is not more than 75%, that is, the loan ratio cannot be higher than 75%, the deposit reserve ratio is limited to 25%. Otherwise, the medium-sized joint venture bank will not have enough. Deposits pay for loans, which in turn restricts the healthy development of commercial banks.
 
  2 Is the possibility of a recent rate hike reduced?
 
  Recycling liquidity is a consensus, and experts have different opinions on the impact of interest rate hikes.
 
  The deposit reserve ratio and interest rate hike are two means of regulating by quantity and price respectively. Whether the rate of deposit reserve is raised frequently and the possibility of raising interest rates in the short term is also reduced. Experts in this industry have different opinions.
 
  Guo Tianyong, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the central bank once again raised the deposit reserve ratio, which is intended to flexibly manage liquidity and prevent banks from re-emerging the situation of credit blowouts at the beginning of the year. At the same time, it can avoid the situation that the inflation expectations are prone to occur before the holiday. But this does not rule out the possibility of the central bank raising interest rates before and after the Spring Festival.
 
  Xia Bin, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said last night that the central bank raised the reserve ratio to recover excess liquidity in the market. Xia Bin believes that the current excess of liquidity is due to excessive foreign exchange, and raising the reserve ratio is to recover liquidity. It does not mean that the central bank should tighten monetary policy. He said that the central bank did not choose to raise interest rates because the impact of interest rate hikes on recycling liquidity requires a series of policy transmission mechanisms, which have a delayed effect in time. The effect is not as direct and obvious as the deposit reserve ratio.
 
  But Teng Tai, chief economist of Minsheng Securities, said that raising the deposit reserve ratio this time may mean lowering the possibility of raising interest rates before the Spring Festival. Last December, the CPI is expected to fall back at a high level. Based on this judgment, the probability of raising interest rates before the Spring Festival is not great.
 
  ■ Impact
 
  Short-term bearish stock market
 
  For the central bank to raise the deposit reserve ratio, Dacheng Fund said yesterday that the tightening policy in the short term will affect the profitability of listed companies and put some pressure on the stock price. Li Dazhao, director of the Institute of Securities Research, believes that the impact of the upward adjustment on the market is negative, and there may be some shocks in the short term, but it will not affect the market's rising trend.
 
  Guo Guo Securities (8.590, -0.01, -0.12%) analyst Zhang Guojiang's view is more pessimistic, he said that in the recent stock market trading volume shrinking, liquidity is tightening, the central bank issued this policy, will be on the stock market There will be a large negative impact, and the central bank may continue to introduce relevant tightening policies, and the market may continue to fall.
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