On January 9, Chongqing Municipal Mayor Huang Qifan stated in the government work report that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, Chongqing will strengthen fiscal and tax regulation and levy high-end commercial housing taxes. It is reported that the property tax rate for high-end housing in Chongqing may be around 1%, and the pilot program may be launched in the first quarter. Although analysts believe that the Chongqing pilot is to expand the experience of real estate tax in the country in the future, improve the real estate tax system. However, at the beginning of the new year, the offer was made, and the big wave of the property market was still set off. Various speculations followed.
Many details of the Chongqing property tax have not yet been clarified, but it reveals one of the most important signals: the Ministry of Finance has agreed in principle. Under the "excavation" of the media, the Shanghai version of the property tax has gradually revealed the outline - "only for new houses", "per capita exemption area of 60 to 70 square meters", "tax rate of 0.5% to 0.6%." The above three points are the most authoritative news about Shanghai property tax.
As for the practice in previous years, the annual policy adjustments are after the "two sessions" in the country. At the beginning of 2011, the property tax that has been rumored for many years began to seek landing in Shanghai and Anhui, so that the regulation of the property market policy this year is earlier than in previous years.
The upcoming Humin version of the property tax is significantly lower than the previously circulated version. For the current “formation” of the property tax exhibition, most professionals have said that the property tax is difficult to shake the house price. Li Qingwen, director of DTZ's Central China and West China Planning and Development Consultancy Department, even judged that if the property tax is only for new purchases, it will not affect the current Guangzhou real estate market. Li Qingwen believes that the target of levying property tax in major cities should be “small and big”, that is, to start with a small group of people, instead of levying a property tax at the beginning, for example, the current area is relatively large. Luxury homes or villas start to levy a property tax and then slowly expand to the entire market.
He believes that property tax is not a "flooding beast". The current method of expropriation will not affect real estate investment. Even in the "stimulus" of Chongqing and Shanghai property tax, there will be a rising madness in first-tier cities such as Guangzhou. Investors will enter the "squatting room" to catch up with the "last train" before the property tax.
Lin Muxiong, chairman of China Southern District of Savills, also said in an interview that the property tax has been levied in Western countries for many years. If the property tax is imposed in China, the property type will be collected from commercial real estate and then transferred to All real estate. The scope of collection will also start from some first-tier cities and then transition to the whole country. In the long run, the collection of property tax will help regulate and guide the healthy development of real estate, and the cost of property holding will increase.
Text / Figure Nanfang Daily reporter Guan Li
Thematic planning Guan Li
Property tax pilot has limited impact
According to CCTV reports, the mayor of Chongqing Municipality Huang Qifan revealed that the property tax should not only be levied on high-end housing, but also on the stock room. Since last year, the news that Shanghai, Chongqing, and Shenzhen will conduct real estate tax pilots has repeatedly attracted public attention. Wang Yulin, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that it is not the property tax that can solve the problem of the property market. Everyone regards the role of property tax as too high, and the real estate market should speed up the construction and management of the legal system. Zhou Jiancheng of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute believes that the main function of property tax is to increase local fiscal revenue. In terms of curbing housing prices, the role of property tax will not be long-term. He judged that from the current various rules of the Shanghai version of the property tax in the market, the local fiscal revenue increased by 1 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan. In the medium and long term, the property tax effect will soon be digested by the market. After the property tax is introduced for some time, the property market will return to normal.
Yin Bocheng, director of the Real Estate Research Center of Fudan University, pointed out that the introduction of property tax is intended to curb investment needs, thereby balancing house price growth; second, to open up a stable source of tax for local governments; and third, to curb the gap between the rich and the poor. Yin Bocheng believes that insisting on real estate regulation and control is the basis for curbing the excessive growth of housing prices. Once the regulatory policies are loosened, house prices may rebound.
On the other hand, only Chongqing and Shanghai, which are actively piloting the property tax, have not expanded their influence to other first-tier cities. Experts analyzed that for these first-tier cities, the pressure on house prices is rising, the pressure on the construction of affordable housing is also great, and the space for land transfer can be less and less, and it is urgent to open up new fiscal revenue. Most housing prices in second- and third-tier cities are not very prominent, and local fiscal revenues can also rely heavily on land sales. There is no need to test property taxes in these cities.
Nanfang Daily reporter Li Guangjun
Developer "zero interest rate installment" response
Property tax is coming! It is both unexpected and sudden. Despite the property tax levy, the industry had expected it early last year, but Chongqing officially proposed the levy last week, and the news that it is expected to release official documents in the first quarter still caused an uproar in the real estate industry. From the current effect, Chongqing has become the first city to “eat crabs”, and the deterrence of the domestic luxury market has been presented. It is reported that the same as the pilot city of Shanghai, developers have been moving, many high-end real estate has begun to use installment payments, delayed opening and other means to withstand the impact of property tax, but also has a real estate hit the "zero interest rate installment" banner . However, there is still much controversy in the formal floating surface of this policy. The most intense debate is the actual “utility” of property tax.
Property tax VS rate hike
From the trajectory of the country's policy formulation on real estate in 2010, it can be seen that the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control has shifted from purely “strike hard” to controlling “inflation”. And just in the beginning of 2011, the property tax has already officially landed. Is this the purpose of controlling “inflation” to be “effectively united” or “absent”?
Chen Zhiwu, a professor of finance at the Yale School of Management, recently told the media in public that the attitude toward Chongqing’s decision to levy a high-end commercial housing tax is “not advocating”. The reason is that “domestic taxation has been relatively heavy, and China has no mechanism to force relevant departments to take the initiative to implement tax reduction policies.” He believes that as the biggest reality in the current domestic economic market, there are too many currencies in circulation, but the varieties of investment. Too little. The introduction of the property tax, "it is expected to temporarily ease the pressure on housing prices in the short term." But on the other hand, the effect of restraining inflation is not obvious. As a combination of controlling inflation and suppressing housing prices, it is still more effective to raise interest rates and raise interest rate monetary policy than taxation policies.
In addition, some experts pointed out that the current push for housing prices is not only demand, but more importantly, the currency of the market circulation. The current range of investment is small, and the security of real estate is high. It is difficult to suppress market investment and speculation by relying solely on tax levy. Demand, "investors who can afford high-priced properties, even if they levy a 1% to 2% tax will buy, the final result is passed on to ordinary home buyers, or push the house price up, may again in disguise push up prices It is not good for boycotting inflation.” Hu Yijian, a tax law expert, also believes that in the case of limited market supply of land, in the case of unresolved currency flooding, the use of tax to solve housing price problems is very limited.
Property tax VS fried king
Can you suppress the land price?
"The main reason for the introduction of property tax is not to immediately lower the market price, but to address the 'land finance' policy of the local government." Xiao Wenxiao, senior director of research at Mantanghong, said. According to the data released by the 2011 National Land Resources Work Conference held on January 7 this year, the national land transfer fees in 2010 reached 2.7 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 70% year-on-year, accounting for 27% of the annual revenue of 10 trillion yuan. "And the introduction of property tax will improve the source of local government funds, which will help control the land transfer price."
Although the current local government debt is still opaque, according to the Standing Committee of the 11th National People's Congress on June 23 last year, the auditing department announced the financial data of the 18 provinces, 16 cities and 36 counties at the same level, as shown at the end of 2009. There are 307 local financing platform companies at all levels, with a total government debt balance of 14,500 yuan, and local government debt totaling nearly 2.8 trillion yuan. According to industry sources, in the past, such huge debts were basically paid for by the transfer fees from land auctions. At present, the Chongqing property tax has come to the fore, and some comments suggest that it will change the current local government's enthusiasm for speculating high land prices. “The collection of property tax is equivalent to expanding the channels of government revenue, which will reduce the transaction price of land to a certain extent, and will reduce the developer cost in disguise, and the house price will become more stable.” General Manager of Capital Group and Chairman of the Board of Directors Liu Xiaoguang said, "The property tax should be generally levied. According to the calculation of Renmin University, the property tax can be collected 700 billion yuan a year. If it is really received, it will gradually replace the land finance."
However, there are still different voices in the industry regarding the impact of property tax levy on local finance. Financial commentator Ye Tan, despite receiving a property tax “support” in an interview with the media, also reminded that the property tax does not solve local finances. "First levy high-end housing, levying billions of taxes up to tens of billions. You have to say that it is impossible to finally solve the problem of land revenue." Ye Tan said that the most important thing to levy a property tax is not to change the results. It is a variable that carries many of the problems in the middle. "The most important thing is the future inflation expectations and the intermediate institutional changes."
Property tax VS property price
The market replaces the administration?
"The adjustment of property tax as a tax is reasonable. If it is used as a weapon to curb housing prices, not only the purpose is not right, but the method is not right. It may be realized in the short-term when people do not have clear expectations." Ren Zhiqiang said this. In fact, the survey results of some websites on property tax collection show that over 50% of netizens said that “house prices will rise”, and 21.7% of netizens said that “house prices will fall”. To a certain extent, this reflects that for property taxes to suppress property prices, buyers still appear to be "insufficient in confidence."
How much impact can the property tax levy have on market prices? This is not only the most concerned issue for buyers, but also the focus of discussion among industry experts. "Don't expect too much property tax levy to lower property prices." Xiao Wenxiao, senior research director of Mantanghong Real Estate, said in an interview with this reporter that he believes that in the short term, the implementation of policies will certainly have a certain impact on the market. However, the introduction of the tax policy will not have much impact on property prices.
According to Xiao Wenxiao's analysis, the current market reaction is only because the expectations of property tax are too high, but this psychological impact will soon be digested. "The tax rate of 1%-2% is not a big deal compared to last year's house price increase, and it has little effect on the speculators in the market." The main factor pushing up property prices is still the short-term speculation of speculators. “Even if the tax is levied, the difference in such investment can still be passed on to the buyers through the market. If the supply and demand relationship does not change and the supply is not increased, the property price will not be significantly reduced due to the property tax.”
Regarding the influence of property tax, Li Wenjiang, chief analyst of Hefei Hui, said in an interview with this reporter that for the market, more is a signal of policy change. "Property tax as a market behavior is more reasonable than the administrative order of the purchase restriction." Although the introduction of tax policy is difficult to suppress property prices very quickly and effectively, from the restriction of the purchase of this pure administrative suppression policy to the introduction of taxation to carry out the market Self-regulation is more feasible for rationally regulating the property market. Li Wenjiang analyzed that the restrictions on purchases were too broad, resulting in real buyers who are really in need of housing. The “real estate tax levy only hits high-end consumer groups, not only small but reasonable, but also suppressed. Some speculators are good for the healthy operation of the market."